You’re in for a treat if you believe that betting on sports, such as football, is about picking the winner of a match or game. Why? It couldn’t be more wrong. This is how most people choose to bet on football. However, it can lead to a slow-leaking bankroll and zero profits. This guide will show you how to make the best betting decisions. You will feel much more educated and equipped to make winning sports betting decisions once you’re done with this guide.
What does the “Right Way” mean?
Before we give you tips or break down the details, it is important that we all understand what we are trying to do. When we talk about choosing betting เว็บแทงบอล, what does “the right” mean? We’re talking about picking winning selections. Anybody can view a game and make random selections and place a wager. We’re talking about making better picks to increase your chances of being a long-term winner.
If you only care about having fun, you can bet as much or little as you like. We are trying to help those who are serious about their choices or want to take a more serious approach to betting. It is difficult to become a successful sports bettor. This is something we won’t sugarcoat for you. To make the best decisions, you need a plan and a well-thought out strategy.
This guide is not for you if you are just looking to have fun with football betting. If you want to make a profit and increase your bets, we can help.
Focus on value, not winners
Wait, What?! We know you think we are crazy. Did we tell you to not try to pick winners while you make your betting selections? Yes, indeed. We’ll be able to explain แทงบอล to you and why it is so important for your online betting success.
This concept can be explained best by making it a fact. It is possible to have a winning online betting record, meaning more wins than losses, but still lose money. You can also have a losing online betting record (more wrong picks than correct), and still make money. It’s OK to be confused. Let’s go over this briefly and then discuss how it can be applied to betting decisions.
It is important to remember that not all football betting pays the same. You might win more football betting if you bet on big favorites. However, you may not make money. If you bet a lot of underdogs you will win less often but you will get paid more when you are right.
Here’s how your profit would look if you placed four football betting bets that were all (-500) favorites and won three of the four.
This scenario shows that you are 3-1 in your picks but have lost $40. While you are winning 75% on your football betting, you are losing money. To gauge your success, you should track your Return on Investment. Not your win/loss record. Your record is not as important as your profit or loss, even though it seems like that’s what most people share.
This is why it’s important to consider when selecting your picks. It’s obvious that you shouldn’t be trying to pick winners when picking your picks. Anyone can fire on big favorites to build a winning/loss record. To make money in football betting, you need to be an expert. This is known as making football betting value. Online football betting should have the sole purpose of finding football betting with value.
This does not mean that you should avoid betting favorites, or that you cannot make money only by betting favorites. This is what we mean. This is the most important part, so make sure you have your pencils and paper ready for the knowledge bomb that’s coming at you.
Look out for football betting opportunities that pay at a higher than normal rate.
The sportsbook sets the betting lines exactly as they believe they should (minus a few percentage point for the house rake) so that they make money. This line will be moved based on the amount of betting, in order to encourage or discourage betting on different sides of a football game. The line will move frequently to meet the goals of the betting site.
However, there can only one correct line. This line would represent what happens in the game. If you had the ability see the future, you would be able to predict the payout line and spread, and place bets if they were in your favor. It’s OK to be confused. Let’s take a look at an example to help you understand. We’ll assume that there is no houserake in this example.
Let’s assume that the Denver Dogaroos play the Memphis Fuzzygems. These aren’t real football teams. They’re just our invented football teams. Let’s assume that the Dogaroos, a formidable team, thinks that they could win 8 of the 10 Fuzzygems games if they played them 10 times. You think that they will win 80% in the games they play together.
The current moneyline for the Dogaroos stands at (-400). We’re all on the same page. A moneyline bet is a wager that the winning team will win the game. If you bet $100 on the Dogaroos, your profit would be $25. This is a good bet.
Implied Probabilities
Implied probabilities are the key to understanding whether this bet is a good one. Implied probability refers to the chance (or probability) of something happening that another number suggests. The number (-400) not only tells you how much you will be paid for a correct wager on the Dogaroos but also the probability of the Dogaroos winning, based on that number.
We can convert any moneyline into a percentage chance that something will occur by using basic math conversions. We’ve made it easy for you, since no one has the time or ability to do math. This page is a must-read for anyone who wants to be a successful online football gambler.
If you enter (-400) as American odds and click convert, it will tell you that the implied probability for the Dogaroos to win based upon this betting line is 88%. Your prediction, which we’ll call the predicted probability, indicated that you thought the Dogaroos would win the game with a 80% chance. This bet would pay exactly what you expect it to, based on the probability of the Dogaroos winning.
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